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In November, natural-gas-powered heavy-duty trucks recorded actual sales of 2,244 units, up 30% month-over-month but still down sharply year over year, marking the ninth consecutive monthly decline.

In the second half of 2021, was the heavy-truck market really just a tale of “disaster”? Starting in July, major segments of the heavy-truck market experienced sharp declines one after another: the tractor‑trailer segment saw an average monthly drop of 53% from July to November, while the dump‑truck segment posted an even steeper average decline of 56%. Could things get any worse?

Release Date:

2022-01-17

Natural gas heavy-duty truck market.

In November, the natural-gas heavy-truck market posted a year-on-year decline of 77%. Although the drop narrowed slightly after three consecutive months of declines exceeding 80%, a 77% contraction was still enough to keep this segment at the top of the heavy-truck industry’s worst-performing sub‑markets. From January to November, the average decline stood at 78%. Year-to-date, only February saw growth in the natural-gas heavy-truck market—though that gain was largely due to an exceptionally low base in the same month last year, when the pandemic had severely curtailed sales. By the end of November, cumulative sales of natural-gas heavy trucks had fallen by 58%.

In November, retail sales totaled 2,244 vehicles, up 30% month-over-month but still down sharply year over year, marking the ninth consecutive monthly decline.

According to end‑user sales data compiled by the First Commercial Vehicle Network (based on compulsory traffic insurance records, excluding exports and military vehicles), this year… In November, domestic sales of natural-gas‑powered heavy trucks reached 2,244 units, up 30% from October and returning to the 2,000‑unit monthly level. However, year-on-year sales still plunged 77%, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline. After three straight months—August, September, and October—of drops exceeding 80%, the decline in November narrowed slightly. From January to November this year, the natural-gas heavy‑truck market posted negative growth for ten months; whenever other segments expanded, it was the first to turn negative, and when those segments contracted, its drop was even sharper. At this point, it appears increasingly likely that the 2021 natural-gas heavy‑truck market will close with a record-breaking “ten consecutive months of decline.”

From near As shown in the monthly sales trend chart for domestic natural‑gas‑powered heavy trucks over the past three years, the first eleven months of this year saw January, April, May, and June all registering the lowest levels in that three‑year period. July, August, and September, meanwhile, only managed to edge out the bottom thanks to a sharp drop in sales following the implementation of China VI emission standards for natural‑gas heavy trucks in July 2019. In October and November—just concluded—the red line representing 2021 once again dipped to the lowest point of the three‑year span for two consecutive months. The chart further reveals that, compared with 2020, November’s sales level this year remains at a low ebb when viewed across the past three years; within 2021 itself, it too stands at a subdued level. During the second quarter, terminal sales of natural‑gas heavy trucks fell short of half last year’s figures in each of the three months; by July, sales had plummeted to less than one‑third of the prior‑year level; by September, they were down to less than one‑fifth; and in August and October, they sank to less than one‑sixth of last year’s pace. Even in November, sales remained below one‑quarter of the previous year’s level. Judging solely from these data, the “winter” in the natural‑gas heavy‑truck market has now persisted for more than half a year.

According to an analysis by First Commercial Vehicle Network, starting from the second quarter of this year, there has been a decline in… The natural gas‑powered heavy‑truck market has experienced consecutive sharp declines, driven primarily by two factors. First, environmental‑related production restrictions and persistently low road freight rates have left resource‑intensive logistics sectors—such as coal and steel—where tractor units dominate in a deep slump. (Tractor units account for more than 90% of the natural gas heavy‑truck market, as shown in the chart.) Second, starting in May, LNG prices began to rise markedly (see the figure below). At this time last year, wholesale prices for vehicle‑use LNG were barely above 3,000 yuan per ton, whereas by mid‑to‑late May this year they had climbed to around 4,000 yuan per ton—and have since continued to climb, peaking at 8,600 yuan per ton in early November. Although prices have since eased somewhat, even the lowest recorded price in November stood at 7,500 yuan per ton—a level that remains far from cost‑competitive (last year’s average was under 4,500 yuan per ton). With LNG‑fuelled truck operators highly sensitive to fuel costs, and with the transport market remaining sluggish, it has become increasingly difficult for them to commit to purchasing new gas‑powered vehicles. Consequently, under the dual pressures of weak demand and persistently high fuel prices, the natural gas heavy‑truck market’s successive steep declines were hardly surprising.

(Data source: Zhuochuang Information, The benchmark LNG price is set based on the East China region, with Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu serving as reference points, and weights are allocated according to regional consumption volumes.

This year In November, domestic sales of natural-gas‑powered heavy-duty trucks continued to plunge by more than 70%. Among the leading manufacturers, sharp declines remained the defining trend in the end‑user market. Nine of the top ten sellers reported year‑over‑year drops, with Geely Commercial Vehicles—ranked among the top ten with 24 units—posting growth of 118% compared to the same month last year. The remaining companies all saw double-digit declines, though most saw these declines narrow compared to October. Five of the top ten performers recorded year‑over‑year drops exceeding 80%, outpacing the overall market decline for natural‑gas heavy trucks in November; the worst‑performing company saw its November sales plunge 86% year over year. Throughout November, no manufacturer managed to sell even 1,000 units—a situation that has persisted for four consecutive months—and only four companies exceeded 100 units, unchanged from October.

Conclusion:

Continuous Sales have declined over the past nine months, with only one month—November—posting growth; in the most recent five months, average year‑on‑year declines have reached 78%, and cumulative sales from January to November are down 58%. At 57,500 units, this year’s total is roughly 42% of last year’s level. In today’s heavy‑truck market, even describing this segment as “dire” would not be an exaggeration. In December 2020, natural‑gas‑powered heavy trucks sold just over 5,000 units; by contrast, in 2021, persistently weak end‑user demand and falling gas prices meant that, despite a continued year‑over‑year decline in the final month, the pace of that decline had narrowed, leaving room for month‑over‑month gains.

(Article reprinted from: First Commercial Vehicle Network)